Premier League Matchday 4 odds and betting preview

All aboard the gravy train.

Following this column’s perfect and lucrative debut last week (3-0, +4.65 units), and a successful dip into the Champions League earlier this week (3-1, +4.93 units), let’s dive back in ahead of another weekend of Premier League soccer as we continue to build the bankroll:

Southampton (+230) vs. Manchester United (+105), Draw (+230)

This is going to be an up-and-down season for Manchester United. A resounding start to the Premier League campaign is a distant memory following their weekend defeat to Crystal Palace. They’re too reliant on a few individuals, and a desperate lack of creativity in midfield will see them struggle to break down teams who defend deep. We saw it last week against Palace: United had 71% possession and 22 shots, but just three of those were on target as they struggled to carve out a clear-cut chance.

Aided by a Brighton red card, Southampton seemed to hit their stride in last weekend’s derby win. They were also terribly unlucky not to be rewarded with a point against Liverpool when they lost 2-1 at St. Mary’s the week prior. This should be another tight encounter on the south coast.

United have kept just one clean sheet in their last 14 Premier League games, while Southampton have scored at least once in each their last 15 league matches at St. Mary’s. This has 1-1 written all over it.

Pick: Draw (+230)

Crystal Palace (+115) vs. Aston Villa (+250), Draw (+230)

Don’t be fooled by their win at Old Trafford last weekend – Crystal Palace are not good. In fact, by Premier League standards, they’re bad; they followed up that historic victory by failing to score in a loss to League Two outfit Colchester United in the League Cup on Tuesday night. It wasn’t their B team playing, either. Goals will be scarce for them all season. Take advantage of betting against them now before lines are adjusted accordingly as the season wears on.

Aston Villa were excellent in the first half of their match at Tottenham on opening weekend, but went into a defensive shell after the restart and were appropriately punished. That naivety will make it difficult to win at a hostile venue like Selhurst Park against a Palace side with plenty of Premier League experience, but they certainly have the talent and belief to leave the capital with a point.

Pick: Draw (+250)

Newcastle (+150) vs. Watford (+187), Draw (+225)

Congratulations to Newcastle on their victory over Tottenham in north London last week, but such moments will be few and far between for the Magpies this season. Coming off an emotional win, this is when they come crashing back down to earth. The fact the line isn’t higher despite Watford’s 0-3 start speaks volumes about oddsmakers’ thoughts on Newcastle. Back home after a statement win, they’re +150 against the only side in the Premier League without a point.

Watford have been much better than advertised, and that will show soon enough. Their expected goals figure this season is 4.27, yet they’ve scored just once. That’s the biggest negative difference of any club so far this season, while their 42 shots through the opening three weeks are fifth-most in the Premier League. They’ve won three of their last four visits to St. James’ Park and haven’t lost the opening four games of a season since 1935 when they were in the Third Division South.

Pick: Watford (+187)

Arsenal (+135) vs. Tottenham (+180), Draw (+260)

It would be scandalous to discuss this slate without touching on the north London derby.

Keen to avoid dreaded consecutive defeats so early in the season, both sides will be expected to produce responses after losing last weekend. That could make for a tenser affair than expected, despite what the high total of three suggests.

Arsenal have lost just one of their last 26 Premier League matches against Spurs at the Emirates, but they’ll have to be at their absolute best to hand Mauricio Pochettino’s side a second successive defeat. A share of the spoils seems the likeliest outcome.

Pick: Draw (+260)

Alex is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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