Premier League
3 emerging trends in England's transfer window – and why they're happening
Cristiano Ronaldo’s appeal to leave Manchester United, and the salvo of slammed doors across Europe in response to his request, isn’t the only surprising development of this summer’s transfer window.
There have also been emerging trends in England that defy the usual rules of Premier League ins and outs. One new element actually harks back to the past, while other purchases and sales indicate a clear shift in how clubs are operating in the market.
England’s transfer habits are evolving, and here’s why.
Too much trust in the manager’s address book?
This trend largely relates to two rival clubs from either side of the Lancashire-Yorkshire divide – Manchester United and Leeds United – and it can’t be expected to last.
The days of Peter Taylor spotting players and Brian Clough turning up at their houses uninvited to launch a charm offensive are long gone. Top-level transfers now tend to be a more sophisticated affair, requiring opinions and approval from scouts, statisticians, agents, managers, directors, owners, lawyers, and leagues before a deal is struck. Even clubs with modest resources don’t necessarily retreat to the Clough model: The Canadian Premier League, which only kicked off in 2019, outsources a lot of its recruitment to Twenty First Group, a company that uses technology and analytics to uncover market inefficiencies. When a part of the recruitment chain has to be broken, statistics still survive.
Now, Leeds and Manchester United haven’t gone full Clough-Taylor in this window, but analytics and scouting are clearly taking a back seat while Jesse Marsch and Erik ten Hag scroll through their list of contacts. There’s a retro feel to both clubs’ recruitment.
At Leeds, Marsch has reunited himself with Brenden Aaronson and Rasmus Kristensen (his former players at Red Bull Salzburg), and Tyler Adams (who played for him at both the New York Red Bulls and RB Leipzig). The signing of winger Luis Sinisterra from Feyenoord may have followed the more modern route of player purchases, but Marc Roca joined from Bayern Munich after he worked under coaches who, like Marsch, were part of the Red Bull stable. That could’ve only helped move the deal along.
Ten Hag has also stuck to what he knows. Lisandro Martinez followed the manager from Ajax for at least €57 million – a huge fee that hints at the Dutchman’s desperation to work with the defender again. United’s links with a pricey move for Antony, the winger that Ten Hag plucked from Sao Paulo in 2020, won’t relent. Christian Eriksen was brought aboard six months after he worked on his fitness with Ajax’s youth team. The left-back position was strengthened with Tyrell Malacia, a standout in the Dutch top flight with Feyenoord.
The two clubs are clearly making a public show of support for their managers, which is quite admirable given how common hasty sackings are in this era. It’s welcome for Ten Hag, who needs strong backing in his bid to end almost a decade of abject underachievement at Old Trafford. And it’s welcome for Marsch, who’s finding Marcelo Bielsa – one of the most popular figures in Leeds’ history – a tough act to follow at Elland Road.
But, ultimately, Leeds and Manchester United will be dipping their rods in shallower waters than their rivals if they continue to refer to their managers’ address books. Eredivisie and Red Bull connections can only get you so far. Soon, they’ll have to reacquaint themselves with the scouts and dataheads.
FIFA did something right
Manchester City ended last summer’s transfer window with around 30 senior and youth-team players out on loan, and over two-thirds of that group was spending time outside of England. The Professional Footballers’ Association criticized Chelsea for “warehousing” players in a similar manner seven years ago.
But City, Chelsea, and others were forced to quickly revise their loan strategy at the start of the year.
FIFA announced in January that it would implement a tighter control of the loan market and gave clubs under six months to rethink their approaches. The objectives of the world governing body’s changes included “developing young players” and “preventing the hoarding of players,” and, on what little evidence we’ve seen thus far, that plan will work.
New limits on international loans
| Season | Loans in | Loans out |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 8 | 8 |
| 2023-24 | 7 | 7 |
| 2024-25 onward | 6 | 6 |
City can’t stockpile talent overseas on the same scale. La Liga’s Girona and Montevideo City Torque of the Uruguayan Primera Division – who, by no coincidence, are under the same ownership group as the Premier League champions – are among the foreign sides to still borrow from City in the close season, but the English club far exceeded the current cap of eight outgoing international loans last season.
So, there’s been a fire sale at the Etihad Stadium. Japanese duo Ko Itakura and Ryotaro Meshino weren’t loaned out again and instead were sold to Borussia Monchengladbach and Gamba Osaka, respectively. Pedro Porro joined Sporting CP on a permanent basis. Fewer loan possibilities for goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu and midfielder Romeo Lavia could’ve assisted Southampton’s double swoop of City’s gifted duo for at least £22.5 million.
It’s quite impressive how City habitually profit from footballers who’ve never played for them. However, without FIFA’s changes, some of these players would have stayed on the club’s books and been loaned out to higher-profile teams in the hopes of further driving up their value. The tweaks to the global game’s rule book simply made City – and others – act more decisively.
And the loan changes appeared to coincide with a more widespread adjustment to City’s transfer policy. Despite brokering the arrivals of Erling Haaland, Kalvin Phillips, Julian Alvarez, and Stefan Ortega this summer, City stand to make a considerable net profit on transfers in 2022. This year’s departures of Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Ferran Torres, and some of the loan brigade showed that City are no longer so wary of selling players who may not have reached their peak.
The Brexit effect
Brighton & Hove Albion have already shopped successfully in South America. Alexis Mac Allister provides creativity and combativeness in midfield, and at 23 has already experienced a Copa Libertadores run with Boca Juniors and collected five Argentina caps. Ecuadorian youngster Moises Caicedo showed incredible promise during the second half of last season and could be worth an eye-watering sum in a couple of years.
And it was the capture of Caicedo in early 2021 that heralded a change to the way teams conduct business after Brexit.
British clubs previously had few transfer restrictions on the continent because Europeans enjoy freedom of labor in countries that are members of the European Union (EU). However, the United Kingdom’s divorce from the EU means every player outside the U.K. must now attain a governing body endorsement (GBE) based on their experience and background before they can participate in the English game.
Players from every part of the world are judged via the same points system. Fifteen points are needed to automatically obtain a GBE. Players who score 11 to 14 are referred to an exceptions panel, which has the final say on whether they are suitable for English football. The GBE was introduced on Dec. 1, 2020.
While the new rules would make transfers such as Riyad Mahrez to Leicester City in 2014 unattainable due to his then-modest resume, the system has curiously made it easier for English clubs to sign players from far-flung corners of the globe. The GBE’s high ranking of youth competitions and certain leagues in South America would’ve supplemented Caicedo’s points tally and would’ve also added to the sum collected by Julio Enciso, the promising teenager who joined Brighton from Paraguay’s Libertad Asuncion this summer.
It’s not just Brighton who have taken advantage of Brexit inadvertently opening up football’s borders outside of Europe.
Arsenal technical director Edu was delighted to sign 19-year-old forward Marquinhos from Sao Paulo, describing him as “a player for the future.” In the Championship, Norwich City landed a player from the same club with the transfer of energetic midfielder Gabriel Sara. His arrival would’ve proved impossible under pre-Brexit rules and is the result of the Canaries moving their focus from the second tiers in Germany and Spain to South America. Norwich have recently posted a scout in Sao Paulo and established a partnership with Brazilian Serie A club Coritiba.
Expect more South American imports in English football as clubs put more resources into exploring that part of the world.
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Premier League
Breaking down thrilling EPL title race with 10 games left
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One of the most intoxicating title races in Premier League history is, mercifully, ready to resume.
The quirks of the calendar – an FA Cup weekend succeeded by an agonizing international window – means the titanic tussle between Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City will have been on hiatus for a full three weeks before it gets back underway on Sunday.
But there are no more impending interruptions. With 10 matches remaining for each title contender, we’re barreling toward a resolution to the type of three-way battle that’s exceedingly rare in England’s top flight. There’s never been a season in the Premier League era where three teams went into the final day with a chance to hoist the trophy. This could be it. The last time it happened was the 1971-72 campaign, when Derby County won an incredible four-team fight, narrowly beating Leeds United and, ominously, Liverpool and Man City to the crown. We’re overdue for that kind of drama.
That three sides have converged this way at all is, frankly, remarkable.
These are the three best teams in the country by an enormous margin. They’re the only ones with an expected goal difference per game of plus-1.0 or greater this season. The next best mark, surprisingly, belongs to Mauricio Pochettino’s erratic Chelsea team at plus-0.36. So, yeah, it’s not close.
The three of them are also on a tear and show no signs of slowing down. Arsenal have won all eight of their league games in 2024, scoring 33 goals in the process; Liverpool have collected 22 of a possible 27 points in that time; reigning champions Manchester City have racked up 23 of 27 points. They’ve combined for just one loss since the calendar flipped – Liverpool’s 3-1 defeat against Arsenal in early February.
The only sides that look capable of halting their progress are each other, which makes this weekend’s clash between Manchester City and Arsenal at the Etihad all the more significant.
Each contender has a compelling reason for believing it’s “their” year.
Arsenal
Mikel Arteta’s men look far more assured and mature than last season when they set the pace for nearly the entire campaign, only to crumble down the stretch and relinquish their once sizeable advantage to Manchester City. Do-it-all superstar Declan Rice has been a transformative figure in midfield, while Kai Havertz, after an inauspicious start, is becoming an increasingly vital and consistent scoring threat. At least from the outside, there appears to be more self-belief within the Arsenal camp. Having learned from their experience in 2022-23, Arsenal won’t cede top spot so easily this time. It’ll need to be ripped from them.
Some may be inclined to dismiss their recent run because of their opponents. Yes, the Gunners have played some weak teams – Sheffield United! Burnley! Nottingham Forest! – but, for the most part, they aren’t just beating them; they’re blowing them away with a ruthlessness usually associated with title winners. For those still unconvinced, Sunday’s visit to the Etihad, where they were tossed aside like a rag doll in last season’s 4-1 loss, will be the ultimate litmus test to see if this team is ready to end the club’s 20-year title drought.
Liverpool
Jurgen Klopp’s persistent squad, already with the League Cup in tow, aims to send off their departing bench boss in style. Liverpool have been the most entertaining team of the trio this season. They create more chances than Arsenal and City and concede more opportunities. Darwin Nunez, the ultimate agent of chaos on a football pitch, is the perfect fit for a team with a habit of scoring late goals and delivering dramatic moments. Their title charge is built on more than just vibes, though.
Liverpool overwhelmed none other than City in their last league game before the international break but came away from the pulsating affair at Anfield with a 1-1 draw. City, usually self-confident and domineering in possession, simply held on against what Pep Guardiola dubbed a “tsunami” of pressure. There was obviously some added incentive at play, but Liverpool are built to go full speed regardless of the opposition. It’s in their nature under Klopp.
Manchester City
Despite not being at its vintage best this term, Guardiola’s accomplished crew remains the favorite in the eyes of many who, for good reason, simply refuse to pick against them. We’ve been conditioned to feel like City will inevitably be the last team standing because, well, they usually are. Five titles in the previous six seasons will have that effect on the collective psyche. However, Erling Haaland isn’t replicating his ferocious scoring pace from last season, and Kevin De Bruyne has been limited to six league starts. Also, outside of some electrifying Jeremy Doku performances, the summer signings haven’t exactly set the world alight. And yet, here they are, just one point off the top, showing the quiet confidence and tranquility that can only be obtained through winning experiences.
With Phil Foden leading the way and authoring arguably the best season of anyone in the league, City could become the first team in English history to win four consecutive top-flight titles.
Strength of schedule
On paper, Arsenal have the most difficult fixture list.
Their remaining opponents average 41.8 points this season, roughly corresponding to ninth place in the table. Put another way, it would be the equivalent of playing Wolves (41 points) or Brighton (42) each week. It doesn’t help that many of Arsenal’s toughest matches are away from home. Coincidentally, they have upcoming trips to Brighton and Wolves, along with north London rivals Tottenham and Manchester United, following this weekend’s potentially decisive tilt at the Etihad. It’s tough.
Manchester City’s task is slightly more forgiving, as their remaining opponents average 40.7 points or 10th place.
Liverpool appear to have the most favorable schedule of the trophy chasers, with their opponents averaging 38.4 points, a tally representing the haul of a team in the bottom half of the table. While that’s better than the alternative, it’s not quite so simple for the Reds. On the back of a potentially draining Europa League quarterfinal second leg against Atalanta in mid-April – more on that soon – Klopp’s men have three away games in seven days against Fulham, Everton, and West Ham. In addition to battling their local nemesis, who could still be scrapping for survival at that point, Liverpool will also face a rambunctious Goodison crowd that would love nothing more than to play a critical role in stopping their hated rivals from winning another league crown.
Aston Villa and Spurs, meanwhile, stand out as common foes for all three title hopefuls. Sitting fourth and fifth, respectively, and engaged in their own fight to secure a Champions League place, they could play the role of kingmakers this spring.
European commitments
Balancing the mental and physical demands of domestic play with continental competition is a huge piece of this puzzle for all three teams. Midweek success can further galvanize a group, but taxing failures can cripple a team’s momentum at home.
Much like the domestic schedule, Liverpool seem to have an edge here. Arsenal and Manchester City will face European behemoths Bayern Munich and Real Madrid in a pair of mouthwatering Champions League quarterfinal ties beginning next month. However, Liverpool have a comparatively charitable Europa League encounter with Atalanta.
If they both advance, Arsenal and City will meet in the Champions League semifinals, an outcome that will surely be celebrated wildly on Merseyside.
How those games intermingle with the league schedule also matters. Liverpool play Crystal Palace and Fulham following their two matchups with the Italian outfit. After locking horns with Bayern, Arsenal have to contend with Aston Villa and Wolves. Manchester City, still active on three fronts as they seek a second consecutive treble, host lowly Luton after the first leg of their Real Madrid rematch and take on Chelsea in the FA Cup semifinals following the second leg.
Injury concerns
Liverpool have been plagued by injuries all season. Mohamed Salah, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Darwin Nunez, Diogo Jota, and Andy Robertson, among others, have missed varying amounts of time, though the bulk of that group is getting back to full fitness. Alisson Becker remains sidelined and might not return until mid-April. Defensive stalwart Virgil van Dijk is the only Liverpool player to garner over 2,000 league minutes this season, indicating how disruptive injuries have been for Klopp’s team. And yet, they persevere.
Five Manchester City players have cleared the 2,000-minute mark thus far, and a couple more are on the cusp. But the club was without De Bruyne for the entire first half of the season, while trips to the treatment room ravaged Jack Grealish’s year. City also got hit the hardest by the recent international break, with John Stones and Kyle Walker hurt on England duty and racing against time to recover for Sunday’s match versus Arsenal. Swiss defender Manuel Akanji is in the same boat, and Ederson’s return date from a thigh injury remains uncertain. Never shy about tweaking his lineup, Guardiola could be forced to tinker yet again.
Arsenal have been largely unscathed, with six players eclipsing 2,000 league minutes. William Saliba, whose absence last season played an outsize role in Arsenal’s capitulation, has been on the pitch for every second of league play in 2023-24. Gabriel Jesus has battled ailments all year, and Jurrien Timber suffered an ACL injury just 49 minutes into his Premier League debut in the season opener. But the Gunners will be hoping their relative good fortune on the injury front extends right through May, especially as it relates to Bukayo Saka, who pulled out of the England squad to nurse a minor muscular issue.
Prediction
First, a disclaimer: Luck will play a pivotal role in determining which team is crowned on May 19. Injuries will continue to be a factor. There will almost certainly be contentious refereeing and VAR decisions that favor and oppose the title challengers. There will also be finishing variance, with players missing seemingly easy chances and converting more difficult opportunities.
Impossible to predict? No matter. We’re not going to let that stop us.
Considering their advantageous schedule, at home and in Europe, along with their improving squad health at just the right time and the inescapable feeling that this is a team of destiny determined to send their beloved manager out on a high, we’re going with Liverpool, who’ll collect 88 points to pip their rivals and again interrupt Manchester City’s run of domestic dominance.
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Premier League
Euro 2024 playoffs: Miraculous Ukraine comeback, big result for Wales
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Wales, Greece, and Poland registered statement wins Thursday, joining three other teams in next Tuesday’s playoff finals for the three remaining places at Euro 2024.
Ukraine staged an incredible late comeback against Bosnia and Herzegovina in its semifinal to keep its Euro dream alive.
The highest-placed team in FIFA’s rankings that’s no longer in contention to reach the tournament in Germany is 60th-placed Finland.
Here’s how the playoff semifinals across Path A, B, and C played out.
Path A
Poland 5-1 Estonia
Estonia barely stood a chance. Down to 10 men as early as the 27th minute, the northern Europeans could only muster a consolation goal in a 5-1 loss to Poland. The Polish achieved the rout without Robert Lewandowski getting on the scoresheet and remain unbeaten in 21 Euro qualifiers at home, a magnificent run dating back to September 2006. Poland is trying to make up for a poor qualifying campaign in which it finished third in Group E, four points behind the Czech Republic and Albania. The country hasn’t missed the Euros since 2004.
Wales 4-1 Finland
The Red Wall might descend on Germany this summer. Wales’ raucous supporters have legitimate hopes of traveling to another major tournament after the Dragons scorched Finland without the retired Gareth Bale and with Aaron Ramsey, 33, on the bench after more injury problems. Teemu Pukki gave the visiting team some hope just before halftime following well-taken finishes from David Brooks and Neco Williams. But Wales needed just 73 seconds of the second period to restore its two-goal cushion via Brennan Johnson’s tap-in. Daniel James took advantage of a defensive error before rounding the goalkeeper in the 86th minute to give the host a resounding victory.
Playoff final: Wales vs. Poland, Tuesday 3:45 p.m. ET
Path B
Israel 1-4 Iceland
Iceland’s Albert Gudmundsson stole the show with an emphatic hat-trick against Israel on Thursday. His stunning free-kick into the top right corner canceled out Eran Zahavi’s opening goal for Israel, and he created a nice cushion for his country with a pair of markers in the final 10 minutes. Just before that, Zahavi blew an incredible opportunity to equalize the match at 2-2, missing a penalty awarded for handball against Iceland’s Gudmundur Thorarinsson. A red card to Israel’s Haim Revivo didn’t help the trailing side. Iceland is now a game away from making only its second-ever appearance at the Euros following its quarterfinal run in 2016.
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-2 Ukraine
Ukraine scored twice with just minutes remaining in regulation to snatch what seemed to be a sure victory from Bosnia and Herzegovina on Thursday. Bosnia controlled play for most of the match and took the lead in the 56th minute when Mykola Matviyenko turned in Amar Dedic’s shot into his own net. But a colossal defensive lapse cost the Bosnians a chance to make it a record four countries from the former Yugoslavia at Euro 2024. Roman Yaremchuk came off the bench to equalize in the 85th minute and teed up Artem Dovbyk’s sensational winning header three minutes later to turn the playoff semifinal on its head. Ukraine now faces Iceland with a third consecutive Euro appearance at stake.
Playoff final: Ukraine vs. Iceland, Tuesday 3:45 p.m. ET
Path C
Georgia 2-0 Luxembourg
Two clever finishes from Budu Zivzivadze in Tbilisi assured Georgia of a place in Path C’s final – and all without the help of suspended talisman Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. But it wasn’t that simple for the host. Luxembourg thought it equalized during the second half, only for the goal to be eventually snatched away due to Maxime Chanot’s apparent foul 45 seconds earlier. Luxembourg’s Chanot was controversially sent off for denying a clear goal-scoring opportunity, and Zivzivadze effectively ended the match six minutes later with his second strike. Kvaratskhelia is available for the final.
Greece 5-0 Kazakhstan
Anastasios Bakasetas lashed home a penalty, Dimitrios Pelkas headed into the net’s roof, Fotis Ioannidis tapped in from close range, and Dimitrios Kourbelis added another header. And that was all before halftime. Kazakhstan’s impressive 2022-23 Nations League campaign and notable Euro 2024 qualifying wins over Denmark, Northern Ireland (twice), and Finland suddenly seemed ages ago, as Greece recorded its biggest halftime lead since October 1978 (5-0 against Finland). Aleksandr Marochkin’s embarrassing own goal in the 85th minute made Kazakhstan’s day even worse.
Playoff final: Georgia vs. Greece, Tuesday 1:00 p.m. ET
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Premier League
Look: Nike unveils beautiful kit selection for Euro 2024, Copa America
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Nike released a stunning batch of threads ahead of Euro 2024 and Copa America on Monday.
Days after Adidas launched its lineup for the summer’s top two tournaments, Nike followed suit with an array of colorful designs.
The U.S. manufacturer also announced redesigns for Canada and Poland, even though they’ve yet to qualify for their respective tournaments. The Canucks face Trinidad and Tobago in a one-off Copa America qualifier on Saturday, while Poland must navigate a four-team playoff to reach Euro 2024.
(All images courtesy of Nike)
Euro 2024
Croatia
Home
The square-shaped design that gives Croatia its unique look gets a slight upgrade. The home shirt features larger squares than ever before.
Away
Croatia’s away shirt plays on the national flag, with the traditional checkered pattern now on a slant.
England
Home
Influenced by England’s 1966 training gear, the home shirt has a classic feel with a rich blue collar and gorgeous trim along the cuffs.
Away
England embraces a deep purple hue for its away selection. The crest stands out with a contrasting off-white tint that makes the three lions pop.
France
Home
France’s home shirt may have the biggest crest of all of Nike’s offerings. The oversized rooster defines this shirt as much as the royal blue that’s made France’s kits a crowd-pleaser.
Away
The pinstripes mirror the colors of France’s national flag and span the width of the shirt in a simple, yet elegant design.
Netherlands
Home
Nike could’ve offered anything orange here, and it would’ve been perfect. But the Netherlands has something bolder and better to wear. The zig-zag pattern adds edge.
Away
The orange collar and cuffs pop alongside the three shades of blue Nike has chosen to create the abstract design on this work of art.
Poland
Home
Poland dedicates premium real estate on the country’s home shirt to its imposing crest.
Away
Poland’s away shirt is a daring choice. The graphic treatment adds texture, giving it a rugged feel while separating from the red tones of years past.
Portugal
Home
With possibly the best home shirt in Nike’s collection, Portugal leans heavily into its traditional red-and-green motif with a polo collar and thick cuffs. The logo sits prominently as well. A smash hit.
Away
Here’s another winner. Portugal’s away strip has a stunning textile imprint that gives off a cool summer vibe.
Turkey
Home
This is a menacing look. Turkey will look like a whirring red army with these imposing shirts.
Away
The classic red band returns to Turkey’s away uniform. Like the others, it features an oversized crest in the middle of the shirt.
Copa America
Brazil
Home
Nike goes big with Brazil’s crest and adds an intricate design to the same yellow hue the Selecao have used for decades.
Away
Brazil’s secondary strip feels like the beach. A horizontal wavy pattern covering the entire shirt mimics the country’s picturesque coastline.
Canada
Home
The only blemish in Nike’s lineup. Why is there a circle around the swoosh? And why are the shoulders so much darker than the body? None of it makes sense.
Away
The 13 pinstripes are supposed to represent the 10 provinces and three territories that make up Canada. Unfortunately, the rest of the shirt looks incomplete.
United States
Home
The United States men’s national team gets a classic home shirt with patriotic detailing along the color and sleeves.
Away
The gradient works perfectly with the red shorts the U.S. will wear at the Copa America.
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