EPL Roundtable: Thoughts at midway point, predictions for 2nd half of season

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Now that we’ve reached the midway point of the 2023-24 Premier League season, theScore’s soccer editors examine some of the biggest questions and storylines from England’s top flight while also looking ahead to the second half of the campaign.

Favorite moment so far?

Gordon Brunt: The aftermath of Luis Diaz’s goal against Luton Town stands out way above the rest. In his first game back after a guerrilla group kidnapped his parents in his native Colombia in late October, Diaz netted a header to earn Liverpool a crucial point on the road. But it was his gesture afterward that will stick with fans, as Diaz revealed a message on his undershirt calling for his father’s release. Fortunately, his wish came true days later, and the two were reunited in November.

Gianluca Nesci: The 4-4 thriller between Chelsea and Manchester City in November was the Premier League at its pulsating best. It was end-to-end, unadulterated chaos. The reigning champions led on three separate occasions at Stamford Bridge and looked destined for victory after Rodri’s late tally, only for Cole Palmer to provide one final twist – against his former team, no less – deep into stoppage time. The only thing more relentless than the rain was the action on the pitch. What a game.

Daniel Rouse: Liverpool’s Diaz is involved in the two best moments, and they couldn’t be more different. The calamitous exchange between the VAR and his colleagues that led to an incorrect offside decision against Diaz, thereby scribbling away a fair goal at Tottenham Hotspur, was cringe-comedy gold. However, it’s impossible to look beyond Diaz’s goal at Luton as the moment.

MVP so far this season?

Brunt: Manchester City capturing an historic fourth straight Premier League title could depend on Rodri’s health. It’s hard to ignore just how dominant Manchester City are with him in the fold. His influence really comes into light when he’s out injured or suspended. Last season’s treble winners have looked vulnerable nearly every time they play without their lynchpin.

Nesci: Virgil van Dijk. It’s no coincidence that Liverpool are legitimate title contenders once more now that the Dutchman is back to his imperious best. Jurgen Klopp’s team can be adventurous and take greater risks in attack knowing that opposition counters will run into the one-man brick wall at the other end. Van Dijk is precisely what you want in a captain, too: a calming presence capable of rousing his teammates with vocal encouragement whenever necessary.

Rouse: Declan Rice has slotted into Arsenal’s side with ease. Other players would’ve buckled under the pressure of a gargantuan £105-million transfer fee and struggled with transitioning from scrapping for David Moyes to being the orchestrator of Mikel Arteta’s compositions, but Rice took it all in his stride. His anticipation is excellent, he confidently gallops upfield like Patrick Vieira in his pomp, and he’s been decisive with goals and energetic interventions late in matches. What an upgrade from Granit Xhaka.

Who will win the title?

Brunt: No longer strangers to pressures of competing for the Premier League crown, Arsenal finally have the ingredients required to lift the title. The Gunners regrouped over the summer, reconstructed their squad, and could be poised to lift their first league title in almost 20 years thanks to the wealth of experience they gained after last season’s near miss. It’s that knowledge – and a clean bill of health – that may finally push Arsenal over the finish line, ending Manchester City’s stranglehold on England’s top flight.

Nesci: Liverpool. The Reds are probably more flawed than fellow contenders Arsenal and Manchester City – the midfield balance remains a work in progress, even at this advanced juncture of the campaign – but their resilience has shone through all season. That intangible can’t be discounted. If Klopp’s “Mentality Monsters” can withstand Mohamed Salah’s departure for the Africa Cup of Nations and stay in the hunt until he returns, they’ll be in great shape for the final push right into May.

Rouse: Manchester City. There’s no clearer indication that the Premier League’s leading pack are below their best than the fact that City, hindered by complacency and costly injuries, still have first place within reach. Arsenal and Liverpool may rue their inability to pull away while City dropped points and played in the Club World Cup, especially given the reigning champions’ tendency to improve as the season goes on. Another key factor to consider for those backing Liverpool: As Salah departs for AFCON, Kevin De Bruyne should be nearing full fitness.

Who will finish in the top four?

Brunt: Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham. As tempting as it is to include Aston Villa, it’s hard to foresee Unai Emery’s men keeping up this pace. There has to be a dip in form at some point, right? That theoretical drop-off could open the door for Spurs to climb back into the top four and seal a Champions League berth for next season. As for the title race, it doesn’t look like anyone is running away with it this year, so expect a tight battle between the top three that might go down to the wire.

Nesci: Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal, Aston Villa. The margins between the top three are incredibly slim. Aston Villa, meanwhile, are not only fully deserving of their current top-four spot, but also benefit from other candidates beneath them falling by the wayside. Tottenham lack consistency and defensive depth, Newcastle’s squad has been ravaged by injuries, Manchester United are a mess – despite their spirited comeback win over Villa – and Chelsea have too much ground to make up.

Rouse: Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Aston Villa. Emery’s rapid transformation of Aston Villa from rudderless, relegation-threatened outfit to Premier League highfliers is nothing short of phenomenal. The precision of their offside trap and strength of their set pieces are evidence of how this squad is completely on board with its boss’ blueprint. John McGinn headlines a considerable group of players enjoying the best form of their careers. Everything is clicking into place for Villa while so many other clubs are underperforming – and it’d be great to see the 1982 European Cup winners in next season’s Champions League.

Next manager to get fired?

Brunt: Roy Hodgson’s return to Crystal Palace probably shouldn’t have lasted beyond his admirable efforts in helping the club avoid relegation last term. The south London outfit could be another losing streak away from Hodgson, 76, contemplating his future. While he may not necessarily get sacked, the Premier League’s oldest coach at times really does look like he’s fallen out of love with the sport and could very well decide to walk away on his volition.

Nesci: Vincent Kompany. Getting Burnley back into the Premier League, particularly in such an entertaining manner, was a massive accomplishment; the Belgian transformed the club’s style after taking over. It hasn’t translated to success in the top flight, though. Kompany’s team creates few chances and scores even fewer; only last-placed Sheffield United, who’ve already made a managerial change, have a worse scoring record this season. His position hasn’t really come into question despite the poor results, but that surely has to change if things don’t turn around.

Rouse: The drawn-out ownership saga at Manchester United bought Erik ten Hag more time – but that should change now that Jim Ratcliffe has agreed to his 25% purchase of the club. Ten Hag’s hard-nosed approach has deepened divisions in the dressing room, his team’s Champions League campaign was a disaster, and the gap between England’s greatest and United has widened under his leadership. The new co-owner isn’t afraid to make changes: Ratcliffe is on his sixth manager at Ligue 1’s Nice since his takeover in the summer of 2019 and will reportedly cut up to 300 jobs as he attempts to streamline United.

Who needs to make a splash in January?

Brunt: January can’t come soon enough for Newcastle. With almost a full team sidelined with various injuries, Newcastle have slipped so far down the table that the risk of missing out on the Champions League has become a legitimate worry. Losses this month to Luton Town and Everton have only heightened calls for reinforcements during the winter transfer window. Luckily for the Magpies, there’s a seemingly bottomless pit of funds available for new players, and Newcastle could have the luxury of adding a handful of proven stars from Saudi Arabian clubs that share the same owners.

Nesci: Chelsea. Yes, seriously. Despite already spending the GDP of a small nation since Todd Boehly’s arrival, the Blues, incredibly, are still in serious need of a proven scorer to lead the line and act as the focal point that Mauricio Pochettino’s bevy of creators and wide players can orbit around. Nicolas Jackson might eventually be that guy, but he simply isn’t right now. If Chelsea can add a striker in January without running afoul of FFP, it’ll help push the Pochettino project forward in a big way.

Rouse: Injuries to important players and suspensions left Tottenham bare in some areas, to the extent that full-backs are deployed at center-back and even Bryan Gil – the attacking midfielder who looks and plays like a forlorn bassist in a forgotten indie band – started two matches. Spurs could offload the likes of Gil, Eric Dier, and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg to help fund new signings. And, unlike in previous years, Tottenham’s recruitment team has proven it can uncover creative transfer targets to strengthen the squad.

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