Premier League
Predictions for final stretch of riveting Premier League season
With the March international break now firmly in the rearview mirror, it’s full steam ahead in the Premier League until the end of the season. There’s still much to be decided over the next two months as an engrossing campaign approaches its denouement. How will it all play out? Here’s our best guess.
Arsenal or Man City for the title?
Anthony Lopopolo: Arsenal. There’s clearly a feeling within the dressing room that the Gunners can achieve something that seemed nigh impossible just a couple of years ago: win a Premier League title. Much of that’s down to Mikel Arteta, who brought order back to the club upon his arrival in 2019. With the help of trusted veterans Granit Xhaka and Oleksandr Zinchenko, Arteta has made a group of young players believe in themselves and in a singular vision. His project is reaching a crescendo just as Arsenal’s main rival, Manchester City, struggle for consistency.
Gianluca Nesci: Arsenal, by a whisker. It’s a classic football trope, but the Gunners’ Europa League elimination will end up being beneficial here. While Arteta’s team can focus its energy solely on seeking a first Premier League title since 2004, Manchester City have multiple cup commitments to be cognizant of, including a colossal Champions League tilt with Bayern Munich, which, if navigated successfully, would lead to another draining continental clash. The cumulative fatigue of those exploits – physical and, especially, mental – can’t be overstated, even for a loaded squad like City with extensive title-winning experience. The margins of this title race are so fine that it could make all the difference. Arsenal, by two points, will hoist the trophy again after waiting nearly two decades.
Champions League places
Lopopolo: Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United. The most surprising entry on this list is Newcastle, but that’s as much an indication of the club’s recent improvements as it is an indictment of its direct rivals. Usually, Liverpool would have no problem qualifying for the Champions League, but Jurgen Klopp’s side has been more Hyde than Jekyll in recent months. Unless Tottenham Hotspur can get their act together under interim manager Cristian Stellini, they’re equally unlikely to make a legitimate push for qualification. That leaves Newcastle, which have finally found their scoring boots, with only themselves to beat.
Nesci: Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool. The top three spots have long been a foregone conclusion, leaving multiple sides to scrap for one coveted place at Europe’s top table. Liverpool, despite their disjointed season and continued defensive frailties, still have the best top-end talent and the highest ceiling of the teams around them. Tottenham are in disarray and could tumble down the table. Brighton & Hove Albion, quietly right in the mix, have a daunting remaining schedule. Newcastle are best positioned to snag fourth place; the defensively stout Magpies are full value for their standing in the table, too. But, against my better judgment based on the unpredictable nature of Liverpool’s performances, I just can’t shake the belief that Klopp and his star-studded attack will figure it out and finish with a late-season surge to snatch a Champions League berth.
Relegated clubs
Lopopolo: Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth. Leicester City will end up scoring their way out of trouble, and both Everton and West Ham – two of the more defensively responsible sides in relegation danger – will collect enough clean sheets to escape the drop. Without much of a hope in attack, Crystal Palace will slip from 12th place to 18th, and Nottingham Forest will run out of time to find their footing. Forest have talent, and homegrown star Brennan Johnson can win games on his own, but Steve Cooper’s side will pay for a lack of consistency and become just the latest free-spending Premier League side to suffer immediate relegation.
Nesci: Southampton, Nottingham Forest, Wolves. The Saints’ aggressive investment in youth ahead of the season was admirable and refreshing, but their disastrous midseason appointment of Nathan Jones will be too much to overcome. Forest were hit with an unfortunate rash of ill-timed injuries during the international break, including a season-ending thigh problem for Chris Wood. And Wolves, who still have to contend with away matches against Brighton, Manchester United, and Arsenal, continue to struggle for goals. Matheus Nunes’ three-match ban being rescinded is a huge boon for Julen Lopetegui, but it still won’t be enough as Wolves are narrowly beaten out by Bournemouth, who have shown signs of life in recent weeks.
Full predicted table
How many goals will Haaland finish with?
Lopopolo: 35 goals. Erling Haaland is currently averaging more than a goal per game in the Premier League. If he avoids further injury, he should have no problem ending the season at a similar clip. Haaland’s also made a habit of scoring goals in bunches, and with games coming up against defensively suspect sides in Leeds United and Southampton, the Norwegian sharpshooter will get his chance to break the record of 34 goals in a single Premier League season. That mark is shared by Andy Cole and Alan Shearer and was established when there were 42 games in a campaign. Mohamed Salah’s 32-goal outburst in 2017-18 remains the gold standard for a 38-match season.
Nesci: 40 goals. Sitting on 28 tallies with 11 league games remaining, Manchester City’s insatiable scoring machine needs to continue his torrid pace to crack the 40-goal plateau. In theory, Haaland outperforming his underlying metrics suggests he could slow down at some point; his 28 Premier League markers have come from an expected total of 20.1. He’s running hot, but maintaining his Midas touch until the end of the season is absolutely possible. It’s only 11 matches, after all. Dixie Dean holds what’s almost certainly an insurmountable benchmark for most goals scored in the top flight of an English football season. The Everton legend, somehow, found the net 60 times in 1927–28. Haaland won’t hit those heights, but he’ll still breathe rarefied air alongside Dean after breaking the 40-goal barrier.
Next manager to be sacked?
Lopopolo: Brendan Rodgers. This one has been a long time coming. Rodgers first felt the fury of supporters in September when Leicester endured a wretched run of six defeats in seven matches. Back then, he had alibis: The club had hardly spent a dime on signings, and injuries to protagonists Jonny Evans, Ricardo Pereira, and Wilfred Ndidi made reversing the situation even tougher. Leicester couldn’t possibly blame him. Now, it’s become a pattern. The Foxes find themselves in a similar rut, having won just two of their last 12 league fixtures. Though they’ve gone down swinging on several occasions, their fighting spirit alone won’t sustain them. They need results. Unfortunately, that means sacking Rodgers.
Nesci: David Moyes. By all accounts, the Scottish tactician has been on the brink of dismissal for quite some time, seemingly operating on a game-by-game basis as West Ham United flirt with relegation. This squad, on paper, should comfortably be good enough to avoid the drop; as noted above, I’m picking them to survive. But that’s been the case all season, and yet, going into the stretch run, West Ham are languishing in the bottom three. A couple of poor results coming out of the international break could see the Hammers’ brass panic and dismiss the veteran coach in search of the mythical “new manager bounce” as the fixture list winds down. West Ham are badly underperforming, and that’s a damning indictment on Moyes.
January signing to make the biggest impact
Lopopolo: Marcel Sabitzer. Signed on a simple loan deal for the remainder of the season, Sabitzer arrived at Manchester United as somewhat of a risk-free gamble. But the Austrian midfielder has proven himself in the absence of the suspended Casemiro, filling a critical void in midfield. Sabitzer helped to stabilize Erik ten Hag’s side at a moment of tremendous need, showing both the capacity to facilitate play and shore up United’s defensive lines. The 29-year-old will continue to provide depth and relief as United chase trophies in the Europa League and FA Cup.
Nesci: Leandro Trossard. What greater impact could there possibly be than playing a pivotal role in your team’s title-winning season? Arteta has been effusive in his praise of the versatile Belgian, who boosted Arsenal’s attack – and championship charge – after joining the club in January from Brighton. Trossard has fit in quickly and established an understanding with his fellow attackers, recording six assists in his last five league games. His ability to play centrally in the injury-induced absences of both Gabriel Jesus and Eddie Nketiah has been vital in helping the north London outfit keep City at bay.
Most excited about …
Lopopolo: The relegation dogfight. Just four points separate 12th place from the bottom of the Premier League table. A single result could change the entire look of the drop zone. Last-placed Southampton could leapfrog 18th-placed West Ham with a win on Sunday and find themselves back at the bottom of the standings with a loss to Manchester City the following weekend. If results go against them, Crystal Palace could also slide down several places from their current position in 12th. Nothing and no one is safe.
Nesci: The showdown between Manchester City and Arsenal on April 26. It doesn’t get much better than a late-season meeting between two sides that have been going blow-for-blow at the top all year long. And while this isn’t a true title decider – Arsenal may still control their own fate even with a loss at the Etihad Stadium – a victory could all but seal the crown with five matches remaining. Their first league meeting in February, a 3-1 Manchester City triumph, was engrossing. Now Arteta gets a chance not only to avenge that setback but to potentially deliver the dagger to City’s title defense and, simultaneously, get the better of Guardiola, his mentor and idol. Juicy.
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Premier League
Breaking down thrilling EPL title race with 10 games left
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One of the most intoxicating title races in Premier League history is, mercifully, ready to resume.
The quirks of the calendar – an FA Cup weekend succeeded by an agonizing international window – means the titanic tussle between Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City will have been on hiatus for a full three weeks before it gets back underway on Sunday.
But there are no more impending interruptions. With 10 matches remaining for each title contender, we’re barreling toward a resolution to the type of three-way battle that’s exceedingly rare in England’s top flight. There’s never been a season in the Premier League era where three teams went into the final day with a chance to hoist the trophy. This could be it. The last time it happened was the 1971-72 campaign, when Derby County won an incredible four-team fight, narrowly beating Leeds United and, ominously, Liverpool and Man City to the crown. We’re overdue for that kind of drama.
That three sides have converged this way at all is, frankly, remarkable.
These are the three best teams in the country by an enormous margin. They’re the only ones with an expected goal difference per game of plus-1.0 or greater this season. The next best mark, surprisingly, belongs to Mauricio Pochettino’s erratic Chelsea team at plus-0.36. So, yeah, it’s not close.
The three of them are also on a tear and show no signs of slowing down. Arsenal have won all eight of their league games in 2024, scoring 33 goals in the process; Liverpool have collected 22 of a possible 27 points in that time; reigning champions Manchester City have racked up 23 of 27 points. They’ve combined for just one loss since the calendar flipped – Liverpool’s 3-1 defeat against Arsenal in early February.
The only sides that look capable of halting their progress are each other, which makes this weekend’s clash between Manchester City and Arsenal at the Etihad all the more significant.
Each contender has a compelling reason for believing it’s “their” year.
Arsenal
Mikel Arteta’s men look far more assured and mature than last season when they set the pace for nearly the entire campaign, only to crumble down the stretch and relinquish their once sizeable advantage to Manchester City. Do-it-all superstar Declan Rice has been a transformative figure in midfield, while Kai Havertz, after an inauspicious start, is becoming an increasingly vital and consistent scoring threat. At least from the outside, there appears to be more self-belief within the Arsenal camp. Having learned from their experience in 2022-23, Arsenal won’t cede top spot so easily this time. It’ll need to be ripped from them.
Some may be inclined to dismiss their recent run because of their opponents. Yes, the Gunners have played some weak teams – Sheffield United! Burnley! Nottingham Forest! – but, for the most part, they aren’t just beating them; they’re blowing them away with a ruthlessness usually associated with title winners. For those still unconvinced, Sunday’s visit to the Etihad, where they were tossed aside like a rag doll in last season’s 4-1 loss, will be the ultimate litmus test to see if this team is ready to end the club’s 20-year title drought.
Liverpool
Jurgen Klopp’s persistent squad, already with the League Cup in tow, aims to send off their departing bench boss in style. Liverpool have been the most entertaining team of the trio this season. They create more chances than Arsenal and City and concede more opportunities. Darwin Nunez, the ultimate agent of chaos on a football pitch, is the perfect fit for a team with a habit of scoring late goals and delivering dramatic moments. Their title charge is built on more than just vibes, though.
Liverpool overwhelmed none other than City in their last league game before the international break but came away from the pulsating affair at Anfield with a 1-1 draw. City, usually self-confident and domineering in possession, simply held on against what Pep Guardiola dubbed a “tsunami” of pressure. There was obviously some added incentive at play, but Liverpool are built to go full speed regardless of the opposition. It’s in their nature under Klopp.
Manchester City
Despite not being at its vintage best this term, Guardiola’s accomplished crew remains the favorite in the eyes of many who, for good reason, simply refuse to pick against them. We’ve been conditioned to feel like City will inevitably be the last team standing because, well, they usually are. Five titles in the previous six seasons will have that effect on the collective psyche. However, Erling Haaland isn’t replicating his ferocious scoring pace from last season, and Kevin De Bruyne has been limited to six league starts. Also, outside of some electrifying Jeremy Doku performances, the summer signings haven’t exactly set the world alight. And yet, here they are, just one point off the top, showing the quiet confidence and tranquility that can only be obtained through winning experiences.
With Phil Foden leading the way and authoring arguably the best season of anyone in the league, City could become the first team in English history to win four consecutive top-flight titles.
Strength of schedule
On paper, Arsenal have the most difficult fixture list.
Their remaining opponents average 41.8 points this season, roughly corresponding to ninth place in the table. Put another way, it would be the equivalent of playing Wolves (41 points) or Brighton (42) each week. It doesn’t help that many of Arsenal’s toughest matches are away from home. Coincidentally, they have upcoming trips to Brighton and Wolves, along with north London rivals Tottenham and Manchester United, following this weekend’s potentially decisive tilt at the Etihad. It’s tough.
Manchester City’s task is slightly more forgiving, as their remaining opponents average 40.7 points or 10th place.
Liverpool appear to have the most favorable schedule of the trophy chasers, with their opponents averaging 38.4 points, a tally representing the haul of a team in the bottom half of the table. While that’s better than the alternative, it’s not quite so simple for the Reds. On the back of a potentially draining Europa League quarterfinal second leg against Atalanta in mid-April – more on that soon – Klopp’s men have three away games in seven days against Fulham, Everton, and West Ham. In addition to battling their local nemesis, who could still be scrapping for survival at that point, Liverpool will also face a rambunctious Goodison crowd that would love nothing more than to play a critical role in stopping their hated rivals from winning another league crown.
Aston Villa and Spurs, meanwhile, stand out as common foes for all three title hopefuls. Sitting fourth and fifth, respectively, and engaged in their own fight to secure a Champions League place, they could play the role of kingmakers this spring.
European commitments
Balancing the mental and physical demands of domestic play with continental competition is a huge piece of this puzzle for all three teams. Midweek success can further galvanize a group, but taxing failures can cripple a team’s momentum at home.
Much like the domestic schedule, Liverpool seem to have an edge here. Arsenal and Manchester City will face European behemoths Bayern Munich and Real Madrid in a pair of mouthwatering Champions League quarterfinal ties beginning next month. However, Liverpool have a comparatively charitable Europa League encounter with Atalanta.
If they both advance, Arsenal and City will meet in the Champions League semifinals, an outcome that will surely be celebrated wildly on Merseyside.
How those games intermingle with the league schedule also matters. Liverpool play Crystal Palace and Fulham following their two matchups with the Italian outfit. After locking horns with Bayern, Arsenal have to contend with Aston Villa and Wolves. Manchester City, still active on three fronts as they seek a second consecutive treble, host lowly Luton after the first leg of their Real Madrid rematch and take on Chelsea in the FA Cup semifinals following the second leg.
Injury concerns
Liverpool have been plagued by injuries all season. Mohamed Salah, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Darwin Nunez, Diogo Jota, and Andy Robertson, among others, have missed varying amounts of time, though the bulk of that group is getting back to full fitness. Alisson Becker remains sidelined and might not return until mid-April. Defensive stalwart Virgil van Dijk is the only Liverpool player to garner over 2,000 league minutes this season, indicating how disruptive injuries have been for Klopp’s team. And yet, they persevere.
Five Manchester City players have cleared the 2,000-minute mark thus far, and a couple more are on the cusp. But the club was without De Bruyne for the entire first half of the season, while trips to the treatment room ravaged Jack Grealish’s year. City also got hit the hardest by the recent international break, with John Stones and Kyle Walker hurt on England duty and racing against time to recover for Sunday’s match versus Arsenal. Swiss defender Manuel Akanji is in the same boat, and Ederson’s return date from a thigh injury remains uncertain. Never shy about tweaking his lineup, Guardiola could be forced to tinker yet again.
Arsenal have been largely unscathed, with six players eclipsing 2,000 league minutes. William Saliba, whose absence last season played an outsize role in Arsenal’s capitulation, has been on the pitch for every second of league play in 2023-24. Gabriel Jesus has battled ailments all year, and Jurrien Timber suffered an ACL injury just 49 minutes into his Premier League debut in the season opener. But the Gunners will be hoping their relative good fortune on the injury front extends right through May, especially as it relates to Bukayo Saka, who pulled out of the England squad to nurse a minor muscular issue.
Prediction
First, a disclaimer: Luck will play a pivotal role in determining which team is crowned on May 19. Injuries will continue to be a factor. There will almost certainly be contentious refereeing and VAR decisions that favor and oppose the title challengers. There will also be finishing variance, with players missing seemingly easy chances and converting more difficult opportunities.
Impossible to predict? No matter. We’re not going to let that stop us.
Considering their advantageous schedule, at home and in Europe, along with their improving squad health at just the right time and the inescapable feeling that this is a team of destiny determined to send their beloved manager out on a high, we’re going with Liverpool, who’ll collect 88 points to pip their rivals and again interrupt Manchester City’s run of domestic dominance.
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Premier League
Euro 2024 playoffs: Miraculous Ukraine comeback, big result for Wales
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Wales, Greece, and Poland registered statement wins Thursday, joining three other teams in next Tuesday’s playoff finals for the three remaining places at Euro 2024.
Ukraine staged an incredible late comeback against Bosnia and Herzegovina in its semifinal to keep its Euro dream alive.
The highest-placed team in FIFA’s rankings that’s no longer in contention to reach the tournament in Germany is 60th-placed Finland.
Here’s how the playoff semifinals across Path A, B, and C played out.
Path A
Poland 5-1 Estonia
Estonia barely stood a chance. Down to 10 men as early as the 27th minute, the northern Europeans could only muster a consolation goal in a 5-1 loss to Poland. The Polish achieved the rout without Robert Lewandowski getting on the scoresheet and remain unbeaten in 21 Euro qualifiers at home, a magnificent run dating back to September 2006. Poland is trying to make up for a poor qualifying campaign in which it finished third in Group E, four points behind the Czech Republic and Albania. The country hasn’t missed the Euros since 2004.
Wales 4-1 Finland
The Red Wall might descend on Germany this summer. Wales’ raucous supporters have legitimate hopes of traveling to another major tournament after the Dragons scorched Finland without the retired Gareth Bale and with Aaron Ramsey, 33, on the bench after more injury problems. Teemu Pukki gave the visiting team some hope just before halftime following well-taken finishes from David Brooks and Neco Williams. But Wales needed just 73 seconds of the second period to restore its two-goal cushion via Brennan Johnson’s tap-in. Daniel James took advantage of a defensive error before rounding the goalkeeper in the 86th minute to give the host a resounding victory.
Playoff final: Wales vs. Poland, Tuesday 3:45 p.m. ET
Path B
Israel 1-4 Iceland
Iceland’s Albert Gudmundsson stole the show with an emphatic hat-trick against Israel on Thursday. His stunning free-kick into the top right corner canceled out Eran Zahavi’s opening goal for Israel, and he created a nice cushion for his country with a pair of markers in the final 10 minutes. Just before that, Zahavi blew an incredible opportunity to equalize the match at 2-2, missing a penalty awarded for handball against Iceland’s Gudmundur Thorarinsson. A red card to Israel’s Haim Revivo didn’t help the trailing side. Iceland is now a game away from making only its second-ever appearance at the Euros following its quarterfinal run in 2016.
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-2 Ukraine
Ukraine scored twice with just minutes remaining in regulation to snatch what seemed to be a sure victory from Bosnia and Herzegovina on Thursday. Bosnia controlled play for most of the match and took the lead in the 56th minute when Mykola Matviyenko turned in Amar Dedic’s shot into his own net. But a colossal defensive lapse cost the Bosnians a chance to make it a record four countries from the former Yugoslavia at Euro 2024. Roman Yaremchuk came off the bench to equalize in the 85th minute and teed up Artem Dovbyk’s sensational winning header three minutes later to turn the playoff semifinal on its head. Ukraine now faces Iceland with a third consecutive Euro appearance at stake.
Playoff final: Ukraine vs. Iceland, Tuesday 3:45 p.m. ET
Path C
Georgia 2-0 Luxembourg
Two clever finishes from Budu Zivzivadze in Tbilisi assured Georgia of a place in Path C’s final – and all without the help of suspended talisman Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. But it wasn’t that simple for the host. Luxembourg thought it equalized during the second half, only for the goal to be eventually snatched away due to Maxime Chanot’s apparent foul 45 seconds earlier. Luxembourg’s Chanot was controversially sent off for denying a clear goal-scoring opportunity, and Zivzivadze effectively ended the match six minutes later with his second strike. Kvaratskhelia is available for the final.
Greece 5-0 Kazakhstan
Anastasios Bakasetas lashed home a penalty, Dimitrios Pelkas headed into the net’s roof, Fotis Ioannidis tapped in from close range, and Dimitrios Kourbelis added another header. And that was all before halftime. Kazakhstan’s impressive 2022-23 Nations League campaign and notable Euro 2024 qualifying wins over Denmark, Northern Ireland (twice), and Finland suddenly seemed ages ago, as Greece recorded its biggest halftime lead since October 1978 (5-0 against Finland). Aleksandr Marochkin’s embarrassing own goal in the 85th minute made Kazakhstan’s day even worse.
Playoff final: Georgia vs. Greece, Tuesday 1:00 p.m. ET
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Premier League
Look: Nike unveils beautiful kit selection for Euro 2024, Copa America
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Nike released a stunning batch of threads ahead of Euro 2024 and Copa America on Monday.
Days after Adidas launched its lineup for the summer’s top two tournaments, Nike followed suit with an array of colorful designs.
The U.S. manufacturer also announced redesigns for Canada and Poland, even though they’ve yet to qualify for their respective tournaments. The Canucks face Trinidad and Tobago in a one-off Copa America qualifier on Saturday, while Poland must navigate a four-team playoff to reach Euro 2024.
(All images courtesy of Nike)
Euro 2024
Croatia
Home
The square-shaped design that gives Croatia its unique look gets a slight upgrade. The home shirt features larger squares than ever before.
Away
Croatia’s away shirt plays on the national flag, with the traditional checkered pattern now on a slant.
England
Home
Influenced by England’s 1966 training gear, the home shirt has a classic feel with a rich blue collar and gorgeous trim along the cuffs.
Away
England embraces a deep purple hue for its away selection. The crest stands out with a contrasting off-white tint that makes the three lions pop.
France
Home
France’s home shirt may have the biggest crest of all of Nike’s offerings. The oversized rooster defines this shirt as much as the royal blue that’s made France’s kits a crowd-pleaser.
Away
The pinstripes mirror the colors of France’s national flag and span the width of the shirt in a simple, yet elegant design.
Netherlands
Home
Nike could’ve offered anything orange here, and it would’ve been perfect. But the Netherlands has something bolder and better to wear. The zig-zag pattern adds edge.
Away
The orange collar and cuffs pop alongside the three shades of blue Nike has chosen to create the abstract design on this work of art.
Poland
Home
Poland dedicates premium real estate on the country’s home shirt to its imposing crest.
Away
Poland’s away shirt is a daring choice. The graphic treatment adds texture, giving it a rugged feel while separating from the red tones of years past.
Portugal
Home
With possibly the best home shirt in Nike’s collection, Portugal leans heavily into its traditional red-and-green motif with a polo collar and thick cuffs. The logo sits prominently as well. A smash hit.
Away
Here’s another winner. Portugal’s away strip has a stunning textile imprint that gives off a cool summer vibe.
Turkey
Home
This is a menacing look. Turkey will look like a whirring red army with these imposing shirts.
Away
The classic red band returns to Turkey’s away uniform. Like the others, it features an oversized crest in the middle of the shirt.
Copa America
Brazil
Home
Nike goes big with Brazil’s crest and adds an intricate design to the same yellow hue the Selecao have used for decades.
Away
Brazil’s secondary strip feels like the beach. A horizontal wavy pattern covering the entire shirt mimics the country’s picturesque coastline.
Canada
Home
The only blemish in Nike’s lineup. Why is there a circle around the swoosh? And why are the shoulders so much darker than the body? None of it makes sense.
Away
The 13 pinstripes are supposed to represent the 10 provinces and three territories that make up Canada. Unfortunately, the rest of the shirt looks incomplete.
United States
Home
The United States men’s national team gets a classic home shirt with patriotic detailing along the color and sleeves.
Away
The gradient works perfectly with the red shorts the U.S. will wear at the Copa America.
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