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Soccer needs statistics more than ever in pandemic-hit transfer market

Twenty First Group’s London office is like any other office, really. Baked goods are the centerpiece of meetings and the water-cooler chat is reminiscent of cliched television scenes.

Except there’s one clear distinction: Twenty First Group’s soccer department is making decisions that can decide title races and determine relegation battles.

The company has worked with Ajax, Tottenham Hotspur, Norwich City, and numerous other leading clubs across Europe and North America, helping them uncover market inefficiencies through its interpretation of statistics. And now, while the coronavirus pandemic continues to drain clubs’ finances, there’s even less room for error in recruitment.

“Some players are systemically overlooked because of their size, the way they run, the way they play, certain perceptions about them,” Omar Chaudhuri, Twenty First Group’s chief intelligence officer, told theScore, adding, “It’s an opportunity for smart clubs to cut through that, understand what the important things are, and recruit against the grain.”

Trends have long dictated the transfer market. Chaudhuri noted the average height of top-level footballers dropped in the years after the technical teams of Barcelona and Spain rose to prominence around the turn of the last decade. Wing-backs also soared in popularity when Antonio Conte steered Chelsea to the Premier League title in the 2016-17 season with a 3-4-3 formation.

Victor Moses and Marcos Alonso in 2016 Darren Walsh / Chelsea FC / Getty

Presumptions influence moves as well. For example, newly promoted teams are often said to benefit from signing top-level experience, but Chaudhuri’s research found that these older heads neither increase nor decrease a club’s chances of survival – and you often pay a premium for such players.

“The use of data can be as much about flipping conventional thinking on its head, or at least challenging it and trying to find out the truth because, ultimately, if you can do that, then you’ve got a chance of success,” Chaudhuri said.

Accelerating progress

One of Twenty First Group’s most unique projects is its partnership with the Canadian Premier League (CPL), Canada’s only professional soccer league, which began in 2019. The CPL revealed its collaboration with Twenty First Group in January 2020 before COVID-19 recalibrated ambitions in its second year.

The arrangement is designed to improve the CPL’s transfer practices and, in turn, expedite its growth.

“I think the big downside in that first year was the quality of the international players who played in that league,” Chaudhuri admitted. “It was generally older players who weren’t really raising the level of the league, certainly compared to the Canadians that were in the league, so they took a decision to centralize some elements of international recruitment.”

Bloomberg / Bloomberg / Getty

In-person scouting is a bonus for CPL clubs. Limited time and resources meant Jeff Paulus took in just one scouting trip – to Detroit – in over two years as FC Edmonton’s head coach, with much of his recruitment based on analyzing videos of players. And naturally, with the young league’s network not stretching too far beyond its head coaches’ contact lists, the CPL was fishing in a shallow player pool.

CPL director of football Oliver Gage is excited that, with Twenty First Group’s extensive database, the league’s teams can now find value in the less-farmed areas of football’s landscape.

“A perfect example is going and getting a guy playing in the (fifth tier) in England. It might cost you twice as much as someone from the Portuguese third division even though the level of play might be similar,” Gage said.

“So, what markets can you go looking for players where you might get more bang for your buck even though the level of player is very similar?”

The data acts as another level of due diligence on a player, Gage explained, and goes some way in compensating for the lack of old-school scouting. There’s also a focus to bring in players who are yet to fulfill their potential.

“If you’re signing CPL-level players at 21, 22, then they’re going to improve over the three or four years they’re with us and, therefore, the level of play in the CPL improves,” Gage said. “Even if you aren’t selling these players, as they grow and develop, they’re improving the level of play within the league.”

CPL clubs are capped at seven international players on their roster, and Gage revealed that four of them need to be approved by Twenty First Group. There are two ways to gain Twenty First Group’s approval: when a team is interested in a player and the database corroborates its findings; and when the league itself gets involved with its clubs’ transactions.

Vashon Neufville training with Atletico Ottawa Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

“We in the league office actively go and find players and present them for our clubs,” Gage said. “(We) say, ‘We’ve found this player. We think he ticks all the right boxes, we’ve negotiated a lot of the finances, it’s 95% of the way there. If you want to pull the trigger and sign this player, here are all the details you need, and he’s available to you.'”

The CPL additionally has a domestic scouting department that watches matches and crunches numbers from the smaller provincial leagues. It’ll then stage showcase games for coaches to attend and assess the country’s best part-time players.

For the CPL, the pandemic doesn’t need to put progress on hold. Gage describes his department as an “advisory group” that can use statistics to demonstrate ways for CPL clubs to improve in the transfer market or refine their on-pitch tactics.

That process is likely to continue until the clubs are strong enough to stand on their own two feet.

“I always joke, my job is to have the league build so it’s so robust that I don’t have a job anymore because I’m not needed,” Gage said. “That’s the reality of it.”

The future

Chaudhuri is keen to stress that, while data adds objectivity, numbers in football “are meaningless without context.” He finds many of the stats used in the media – such as possession and the distance a player has run – reflect a team’s style of play rather than its actual quality. Clubs must be able to differentiate between style and quality, and learn how to apply the numbers to their own team, to have more hits than misses when purchasing players.

FC Midtjylland – a Danish club owned by Matthew Benham, the professional gambler who bankrolls Premier League newcomers Brentford – are more aware of this than most. Nearly every single aspect of the club’s operations is condensed into numbers, including training sessions, meals, and a recruitment strategy that’s become the envy of clubs across the world.

Svend Graversen before a match in April Lars Ronbog / FrontzoneSport / Getty

Midtjylland are undeterred when other sides imitate their methods, and they intend to remain at the forefront of data innovation. Sporting director Svend Graversen revealed Midtjylland’s next aim when they identify transfer targets is to quantify the seemingly unquantifiable: the person behind the player.

“It’s so important that you have all the stats about the player, the impact of the player, you know the league that he plays in, you know the team that he plays in – so you know all the football part of the player. But it is still very, very important to find out in a more smart, better way the personality about the player,” Graversen said. “Would his personality succeed in our club? This is what we are looking into.”

It’s the element of football recruitment that’s always presented the biggest risk. A club could buy one of the most coveted players on the planet, but does it know for certain that he’ll respond to the first team’s training drills? Will he get homesick? Will he cower in a fiercely competitive dressing room? Could a significant pay increase lead to off-pitch distractions?

If Midtjylland can reduce that risk with a new statistical breakthrough, they’ll glean a competitive edge over every other club in the transfer market. The process has already begun with assessing their own players’ journeys.

“When you track the culture in the club, when you know the people who succeed in the club – you know their background, their personalities, their learning style, how they interact with the way we’re teaching within our club,” Graversen said. “When we know this, this could be put to the player that we are signing before we are signing him to see, does this player fit in this profile? Who does he look like?”

He added: “I think in the next 10 years, this will come into football. This is what we’re trying now to make a difference. It would be a huge advantage.”

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Bundesliga

Ranking the 10 best deals of the January transfer window

Find the biggest stories from across the soccer world by visiting our Top Soccer News section and subscribing to push notifications.

With a quiet January transfer window now complete, theScore ranks the 10 best moves made across the game’s top leagues.

10. Gift Orban ?? Lyon

Isosport/MB Media / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Details: Signed from Gent for reported €12M fee

There were some concerns when Gent signed Orban in January 2023. His scoring record of 20 goals in just 21 starts was clearly impressive, but that was in Norway’s second tier. Those reservations were soon forgotten as he amassed nine goals and two assists over 10 Belgian Pro League appearances and struck five times in five Conference League outings. His productivity has since slowed, but €12 million for an intensely competitive 21-year-old striker could prove extremely fruitful business for Lyon. Orban’s outgoing personality should also be a welcome addition to the dressing room.

9. Timo Werner ?? Tottenham

Details: Signed on loan from RB Leipzig with reported €17M option to buy

Like many transfers in the January window, bringing in Werner presented a low-risk deal for Tottenham. If it works out, €17 million is an affordable sum for a forward of Werner’s pedigree. The German was largely ineffective over his first two appearances but was much better in his third outing, setting up Destiny Udogie and Brennan Johnson for goals in Wednesday’s 3-2 win over Brentford. His incredible work ethic and pace, paired with Ange Postecoglou’s ability to instill belief in his players, could make this a great move for both parties.

8. Said Benrahma ?? Lyon

Details: Signed from West Ham in deal worth up to €20.4M

Lyon fought for this one, and it should pay off. After battling some administrative issues, the Ligue 1 side completed the deal a day later than expected, announcing Benrahma had joined on an initial €6-million loan deal that could become permanent for another €14.4 million. It’s a low-risk move that should enliven Lyon’s struggling attack. Benrahma’s a functional system player who can break games open and change their pace with the flick of a foot. Though he started just five times for West Ham in the Premier League this season, he hasn’t lost those progressive traits.

7. Marcos Leonardo ?? Benfica

Zed Jameson/MB Media / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Details: Signed from Santos for reported €18M fee

You just know Benfica are onto something here. They always are. Leonardo arrives from Santos in a deal that could look like a bargain in the years to come. Despite playing for one of the worst Santos sides in its 111-year history, the 20-year-old still managed to score 26 goals in 66 league appearances. He’s an old-school striker who loves to hang in the penalty area, and if Benfica can provide him with the right service, he’ll have no issues doubling that goal-scoring return.

6. Tommaso Baldanzi ?? Roma

Details: Signed from Empoli for reported €15M fee

The deal for Baldanzi is perfect in nearly every sense. Roma get a long-term replacement for Paulo Dybala without breaking the bank or running further afoul of Financial Fair Play regulations. The future Italian international also satisfies the club’s long-held preference for central attacking midfielders. Baldanzi even idolized Dybala during his formative years at Empoli. He could’ve waited to go to a club fighting for trophies, but he’ll get far more playing time at Roma, especially if Dybala’s injury issues persist.

5. Adam Wharton ?? Crystal Palace

Details: Signed from Blackburn Rovers for reported initial £18M fee

Crystal Palace are no strangers to fishing in the EFL. They plucked the thrilling double act of Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise from the Championship, and it took an impressive loan spell at Swansea City to convince the Eagles to sign Marc Guehi from Chelsea. Wharton is the next to join that contingent. The 19-year-old will bring some much-needed solidity to the midfield, but his admiration of Frenkie de Jong, Sergio Busquets, and Rodri hints at how much he treasures possession. He displays so much composure while he instigates attacks from the base of midfield.

4. Valentin Barco ?? Brighton & Hove Albion

JUAN MABROMATA / AFP / Getty

Details: Signed from Boca Juniors for reported $10M fee

Tipping a player that Brighton & Hove Albion bought to shine usually works out, right? For a modest fee, the south coast club has acquired a cocksure 19-year-old who can play in any position down the left and also appeared across the midfield for Boca Juniors. Barco is a slippery operator, regularly dribbling past opponents and becoming difficult to track down once he’s wriggled free, and he’s constantly trying to ignite attacks with probing passes. It might take time for him to be a regular in Roberto De Zerbi’s lineup, but this signing should be yet another example of the Seagulls’ South American scouting network striking gold.

3. Jadon Sancho ?? Borussia Dortmund

Details: Signed on loan from Manchester United

Sancho is back at Dortmund – albeit temporarily – after leaving for Manchester United for around €85 million in 2021. The winger had a much-documented spat with Red Devils boss Erik ten Hag, and it’s difficult to envision a route back into the first team while the Dutchman’s in charge. By contrast, Sancho has been given a warm welcome in Germany, with club executives claiming he has no disciplinary issues and is in fine condition after being frozen out at United. It seems Sancho is in an ideal environment to revive his career.

2. Claudio Echeverri ?? Manchester City

Details: Signed from River Plate for reported £12.5M fee

Manchester City continue to bet on young talent during the January transfer window. Highly rated midfielder Echeverri follows in the footsteps of Julian Alvarez as the latest under-23 South American to sign for, if not necessarily join, the Premier League champions in the winter. Like Alvarez, whom City also signed from River Plate, Echeverri has been sent back to his boyhood club on loan for the year, allowing him to continue his development in a controlled environment. He’ll then arrive in Manchester in January 2025. City continue to hit the right note, never panicking while other clubs scramble for that elusive extra oomph to end the season.

1. Arthur Vermeeren ?? Atletico Madrid

Angel Martinez / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Details: Signed from Royal Antwerp for reported €18M fee

At just 18, Vermeeren already boasts plenty of experience. He played more minutes than any other player in Belgium’s top flight over 2023 and even captained Royal Antwerp during this season’s Champions League group stage. The midfielder has already won the Belgian league, cup, and super cup, too. Vermeeren might lack some physicality – and that weakness might not seem ideal when he’s going to play under the combative Diego Simeone – but he has a Koke-esque knack of progressing play while producing more interceptions, blocks, and clearances than the Atletico Madrid veteran. An €18-million deal is a bargain for someone who could become one of Europe’s leading midfielders.

Honorable mentions: Fabio Carvalho (Hull City), Radu Dragusin (Tottenham Hotspur)

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Bundesliga

Transfer Deadline Day Live: Breaking down all the major deals, rumors

Find the biggest stories from across the soccer world by visiting our Top Soccer News section and subscribing to push notifications.

Transfer deadline day is in full swing. We’re providing live, quick-hit analysis of the biggest deals and rumors until tonight’s 6 p.m. ET deadline.

Give Chelsea all of your money

Chelsea are the headline act again at the transfer deadline – but playing a different role entirely. Languishing in 10th place in the Premier League standings and without Champions League football on the horizon, the cash-guzzling Blues desperately need funds to comply with Financial Fair Play regulations ahead of the 2024-25 season. Armando Broja and Conor Gallagher are reportedly up for sale, not because they’re angling to leave but because they offer the juiciest profit margin. Chelsea are raising academy graduates for financial slaughter, having pawned off Lewis Hall, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, and Mason Mount for tens of millions of pounds in pure profit over the last six months. Fulham are interested in taking Broja off Chelsea’s hands, just not at the quoted £50-million asking price, according to BBC Sport’s Phil McNulty. A loan deal could be a welcome compromise.

Bayern getting instant relief

M. Donato / FC Bayern / Getty

Bayern are closing out the window strong. Signing Sacha Boey from Galatasaray for a reported €30 million solves a crisis at the right-back position, where midfielder Konrad Laimer and left-back Raphael Guerreiro have split time as square-peg-round-hole replacements for the injured Noussair Mazraoui. Further injuries to wingers Serge Gnabry and Kingsley Coman forced Bayern to bring in 22-year-old Granada winger Bryan Zaragoza six months ahead of his expected move to the Bavarians. The deals give Bayern the depth they need to continue competing on all fronts. Given their sputtering form and a surprisingly sustained challenge from Bundesliga title rivals Bayer Leverkusen, they need all the help they can get.

No place like home for Hojbjerg

Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg’s future at Tottenham Hotspur has been up in the air since Antonio Conte left the club in March 2023 – and it’ll be suspended in motion for a while longer. Hojbjerg, one of former manager Conte’s soldiers in midfield, has made just five Premier League starts under Ange Postecoglou. And while he remains on the periphery of Postecoglou’s plans, Hojbjerg remains committed to the cause. He doesn’t lack options – Juventus, Napoli, Ajax, and Lyon reportedly expressed interest in the midfielder – but still feels part of something big in north London. Credit to Postecoglou for making a player with such limited minutes feel connected to the cause.

Forest keep wheeling and dealing

Nottingham Forest are sticking to their usual deadline-day formula. Having closed out the 2023 summer transfer window with an incredible seven signings, Forest are back to juggling negotiations. They’ve completed the signing of highly rated Portuguese striker Rodrigo Ribeiro from Sporting CP and Gio Reyna on loan from Borussia Dortmund. Forest are also reportedly flying in Strasbourg goalkeeper Matz Sels after abandoning talks with Crystal Palace over shot-stopper Sam Johnstone. They’re allowing some departures, too, with Serge Aurier expected to leave for Galatasaray and Orel Mangala heading for Lyon.

Other deals to watch today …

  • Said Benrahma to Lyon
  • Stefano Sensi to Leicester City
  • Tommaso Baldanzi to Roma
  • Hugo Ekitike to Eintracht Frankfurt
  • Antonio Nusa to Brentford
  • Bryan Gil to Brighton & Hove Albion
  • Enes Unal to Bournemouth
  • Serge Aurier to Galatasaray
  • Thomas Meunier to Burnley
  • Rafa Mir to Valencia
  • Maxwel Cornet to Crystal Palace
  • Matz Sels to Nottingham Forest

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Bundesliga

The Best FIFA awards: Follow live as Messi, Bonmati eye more trophies

Find the biggest stories from across the soccer world by visiting our Top Soccer News section and subscribing to push notifications.

World football’s top players and managers of 2023 are being recognized at The Best FIFA Football Awards show on Monday. Below, theScore is tracking all the winners of the various trophies handed out in London.

Best Men’s Player finalists

  • Erling Haaland (Manchester City and Norway)
  • Kylian Mbappe (Paris Saint-Germain and France)
  • Lionel Messi (Inter Miami and Argentina)

Can Messi get one over on Mbappe yet again? The Argentine will look to retain the honor he won last year when he beat out his former Paris Saint-Germain teammate. The two superstars will face stiff competition from Manchester City striker Haaland for FIFA’s top individual prize, which was inaugurated in 2016 following the governing body’s split with Ballon d’Or organizer France Football. For this year’s award, accomplishments from Dec. 19, 2022, to Aug. 20, 2023, were taken into consideration by voters.

2022 winner: Lionel Messi

Best Women’s Player finalists

NurPhoto / NurPhoto / Getty
  • Aitana Bonmati (Barcelona and Spain)
  • Linda Caicedo (Real Madrid and Colombia)
  • Jennifer Hermoso (Tigres and Spain)

Bonmati can cap one of the most dominant individual seasons in the history of women’s soccer on Monday. The World Cup-winning midfielder, already having captured the Ballon d’Or and various other accolades over the last 12 months, is looking to succeed compatriot Putellas, who won this award in each of the last two years. The qualifying period for this year’s honor was Aug. 1, 2022, to Aug. 20, 2023, the date of the most recent Women’s World Cup final, which saw Bonmati’s Spain defeat England.

2022 winner: Alexia Putellas

Puskas Award finalists

One of the sport’s most coveted individual trophies. This year’s Puskas Award, given to the scorer of the best goal, covers the period between Dec. 19, 2022, and Aug. 20, 2023. Finalists include a long-range strike to conclude an excellent team move, a sensational bicycle kick, and a perfect rabona.

2022 winner: Marcin Oleksy

Best Men’s Coach finalists

  • Pep Guardiola (Manchester City)
  • Simone Inzaghi (Inter Milan)
  • Luciano Spalletti (Napoli)

A trio of club managers are vying for the men’s coaching award; though Spalletti is the current Italy boss, his nomination came on the back of an enchanting title-winning campaign at Napoli. The two tacticians who were on the touchline for last season’s Champions League final, Guardiola and Inzaghi, square off once again, with the Manchester City boss considered the favorite after his team’s historic treble-winning season.

2022 winner: Lionel Scaloni

Best Women’s Coach finalists

Valerio Pennicino – UEFA / UEFA / Getty
  • Jonatan Giraldez (Barcelona)
  • Emma Hayes (Chelsea)
  • Sarina Wiegman (England)

A mixture of club and international coaches are vying for this prize. Wiegman and Hayes are the two most recent winners. The England manager has taken the award home on three occasions, more than any other bench boss (male or female). Giraldez, meanwhile, is looking for his first FIFA honor.

2022 winner: Sarina Wiegman

Best Men’s Goalkeeper finalists

  • Yassine Bounou (Al-Hilal and Morocco)
  • Thibaut Courtois (Real Madrid and Belgium)
  • Ederson (Manchester City and Brazil)

Bounou helped Sevilla win yet another Europa League crown in 2022-23 before departing for Saudi Arabia, while Ederson backstopped Manchester City to a trio of titles during the club’s record-breaking campaign. Courtois is the only finalist to have won this award before.

2022 winner: Emiliano Martinez

Best Women’s Goalkeeper finalists

  • Mackenzie Arnold (West Ham and Australia)
  • Catalina Coll (Barcelona and Spain)
  • Mary Earps (Manchester United and England)

Three netminders who shone brightly at the 2023 Women’s World Cup will battle for this accolade. Coll helped Spain take home the title, while Arnold and Earps have become cult heroes in their respective countries. The latter, in particular, is one of the most popular footballers in England thanks to her combination of on-pitch excellence and off-field personality.

2022 winner: Mary Earps

Men’s FIFA FIFPro World11

To be announced.

Women’s FIFA FIFPro World11

To be announced.

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